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Premier League
Zamalek SC—Abu Qair Semad
· —
Final score
2–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
83%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 83% means the opposite outcome happens about 17% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ZAM
- 57%
- Draw
- 29%
- ABU
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 64% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Zamalek SC's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Zamalek SC has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Zamalek SC — Abu Qair Semad
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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