Lire cette analyse en français
Championship
Wrexham—Burnley
· Racecourse Ground
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
74%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 74% means the opposite outcome happens about 26% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- WRE
- 21%
- Draw
- 24%
- BUR
- 55%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Wrexham's attack: better than ~76% of the teams in the league
- Burnley's defence: tighter than only ~2% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Wrexham takes 1.57 points per game at home, the opponent 0.76 away
What could mislead us
- Wrexham has 10 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 25%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Wrexham — Burnley
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.