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Championship
West Brom—Watford
· The Hawthorns
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- WES
- 48%
- Draw
- 27%
- WAT
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 13 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- West Brom takes 1.78 points per game at home, the opponent 0.74 away
- Watford has 10 declared absences
- West Brom takes 1.78 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Watford takes 1.74 points per game at home against 0.74 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of West Brom — Watford
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.