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Primeira Liga
Vitória SC—Casa Pia
· Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Final score
0–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
54%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 54% means the opposite outcome happens about 46% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GUI
- 54%
- Draw
- 25%
- CAS
- 21%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Vitória SC takes 1.88 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
What could mislead us
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Casa Pia takes 1.65 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Vitória SC — Casa Pia
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.