Lire cette analyse en français
2. Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg—SV Darmstadt 98
· Volkswagen Arena
What the model reads
70%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 70% means the opposite outcome happens about 30% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- WOL
- 58%
- Draw
- 24%
- DAR
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- VfL Wolfsburg has won 4 of the last 6 meetings
What could mislead us
- VfL Wolfsburg's defence: tighter than only ~8% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The draw still weighs 24%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of VfL Wolfsburg — SV Darmstadt 98
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.