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Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart—Borussia Dortmund
· MHPArena
What the model reads
68%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- STU
- 27%
- Draw
- 24%
- DOR
- 49%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 39% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- VfB Stuttgart's attack: better than ~86% of the teams in the league
- VfB Stuttgart scores 1.9 goals per game at home
- VfB Stuttgart has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- Borussia Dortmund's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Borussia Dortmund takes 2.38 points per game at home against 1.75 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of VfB Stuttgart — Borussia Dortmund
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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