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Serie A
Venezia—Lecce
· Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Final score
0–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
46%Under 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 46% means the opposite outcome happens about 54% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VEN
- 36%
- Draw
- 33%
- LEC
- 31%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Venezia's attack: better than ~94% of the teams in the league
- Lecce's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Venezia takes 2.32 points per game at home, the opponent 0.92 away
What could mislead us
- Venezia has 4 declared absences
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Venezia — Lecce
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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