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Serie A
Venezia—Lazio
· Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
What the model reads
75%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VEN
- 17%
- Draw
- 24%
- LAZ
- 59%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Venezia's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Venezia takes 2.29 points per game at home, the opponent 1.42 away
- Venezia takes 2.29 points per game at home against 1.36 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 24%: the outright win is not secured.
- Lazio has won 3 of the last 4 meetings
The full analysis of Venezia — Lazio
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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