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Serie A
Venezia—Fiorentina
· Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Final score
2–4
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
51%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 51% means the opposite outcome happens about 49% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VEN
- 22%
- Draw
- 27%
- FIO
- 51%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Venezia's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Venezia takes 2.29 points per game at home, the opponent 1.26 away
- Fiorentina has 4 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Venezia has 12 declared absences
The full analysis of Venezia — Fiorentina
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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