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Serie A
Vasco DA Gama—Cruzeiro
· Estádio São Januário
Final score
3–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
83%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 83% means the opposite outcome happens about 17% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VAS
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- CRU
- 34%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 16 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 58% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Cruzeiro has 6 declared absences
- Vasco DA Gama takes 1.45 points per game at home against 0.76 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Cruzeiro's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- Vasco DA Gama's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Vasco DA Gama — Cruzeiro
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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