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Major League Soccer
Vancouver Whitecaps—FC Dallas
· BC Place
Final score
5–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
62%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 62% means the opposite outcome happens about 38% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VAN
- 62%
- Draw
- 20%
- DAL
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Vancouver Whitecaps's attack: better than ~95% of the teams in the league
- Vancouver Whitecaps takes 2.07 points per game at home, the opponent 1.43 away
- FC Dallas has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Vancouver Whitecaps has 14 declared absences
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Vancouver Whitecaps — FC Dallas
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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