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Major League Soccer
Vancouver Whitecaps—Austin
· BC Place
What the model reads
57%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VAN
- 57%
- Draw
- 22%
- AUS
- 21%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Vancouver Whitecaps's attack: better than ~95% of the teams in the league
- Austin's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Vancouver Whitecaps takes 2.07 points per game at home, the opponent 0.89 away
What could mislead us
- Vancouver Whitecaps has 12 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 22%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Vancouver Whitecaps — Austin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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