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Segunda División
Valladolid—Oviedo
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What the model reads
57%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VAL
- 47%
- Draw
- 28%
- OVI
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Oviedo has lost 4 of its last 6
- Valladolid has won 6 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- Valladolid's defence: tighter than only ~10% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Valladolid has lost 5 of its last 6
The full analysis of Valladolid — Oviedo
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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