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Ligue 1
US Monastirienne—US Ben Guerdane
· Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet
Final score
3–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
59%Home clean sheet
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- USMO
- 59%
- Draw
- 27%
- USBG
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 68% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- US Monastirienne takes 2.05 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
- US Monastirienne takes 2.05 points per game at home against 1.1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
- US Ben Guerdane takes 1.61 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of US Monastirienne — US Ben Guerdane
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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