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Jupiler Pro League
Union St. Gilloise—Lommel United
· Stade Joseph Marien
Final score
5–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GIL
- 52%
- Draw
- 28%
- KVS
- 20%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Union St. Gilloise's attack: better than ~87% of the teams in the league
- Union St. Gilloise takes 2.41 points per game at home against 1.8 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Union St. Gilloise scores 2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Lommel United's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
The full analysis of Union St. Gilloise — Lommel United
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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