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Liga Profesional Argentina
Union Santa Fe—Sarmiento Junin
· Estadio 15 de Abril
Final score
4–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
82%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 82% means the opposite outcome happens about 18% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- UNI
- 49%
- Draw
- 29%
- SAR
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 58% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Union Santa Fe's attack: better than ~86% of the teams in the league
- Union Santa Fe has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- Union Santa Fe's defence: tighter than only ~30% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Union Santa Fe — Sarmiento Junin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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