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Liga Profesional Argentina
Union Santa Fe—Instituto Cordoba
· Estadio 15 de Abril
Final score
3–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
65%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 65% means the opposite outcome happens about 35% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- UNI
- 43%
- Draw
- 31%
- INS
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 61% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Union Santa Fe's attack: better than ~89% of the teams in the league
- Union Santa Fe takes 1.54 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
What could mislead us
- 2 draws in the last 5 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Instituto Cordoba takes 1.7 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Union Santa Fe — Instituto Cordoba
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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