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Liga MX
Toluca—FC Juarez
· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Final score
4–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
82%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 82% means the opposite outcome happens about 18% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- TOL
- 65%
- Draw
- 20%
- FC
- 15%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Toluca takes 2.48 points per game at home, the opponent 1.24 away
- Toluca takes 2.48 points per game at home against 1.48 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Toluca scores 2.7 goals per game at home
The full analysis of Toluca — FC Juarez
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.