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Liga MX
Tigres UANL—Puebla
· Estadio Universitario
What the model reads
76%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 76% means the opposite outcome happens about 24% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- UAN
- 66%
- Draw
- 21%
- PUE
- 13%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Tigres UANL's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- Puebla's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Tigres UANL takes 2.07 points per game at home, the opponent 0.63 away
The full analysis of Tigres UANL — Puebla
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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