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2. Bundesliga
SV Darmstadt 98—Arminia Bielefeld
· Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
61%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 61% means the opposite outcome happens about 39% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- DAR
- 47%
- Draw
- 25%
- ARM
- 28%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- SV Darmstadt 98 takes 2 points per game at home, the opponent 0.68 away
- SV Darmstadt 98 takes 2 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- SV Darmstadt 98 scores 1.9 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Arminia Bielefeld takes 1.67 points per game at home against 0.68 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Arminia Bielefeld has won 6 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of SV Darmstadt 98 — Arminia Bielefeld
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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