Lire cette analyse en français
Championship
Stoke City—Norwich
· bet365 Stadium
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
39%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 39% means the opposite outcome happens about 61% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- STO
- 35%
- Draw
- 26%
- NOR
- 39%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 13 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 48% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Stoke City takes 1.43 points per game at home, the opponent 0.83 away
- Norwich has 10 declared absences
- Stoke City takes 1.43 points per game at home against 0.78 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Stoke City has 8 declared absences
- Norwich takes 1.65 points per game at home against 0.83 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Stoke City — Norwich
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.