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Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29—Toulouse
· Stade Francis-Le Ble
Final score
2–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
53%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 53% means the opposite outcome happens about 47% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BRE
- 48%
- Draw
- 26%
- TOU
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Toulouse has 4 declared absences
- Stade Brestois 29 takes 1.7 points per game at home against 0.81 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Stade Brestois 29's defence: tighter than only ~8% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Stade Brestois 29 has 4 declared absences
The full analysis of Stade Brestois 29 — Toulouse
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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