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Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29—Paris Saint Germain
· Stade Francis-Le-Blé
What the model reads
67%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BRE
- 14%
- Draw
- 19%
- PSG
- 67%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Stade Brestois 29 takes 1.61 points per game at home against 0.82 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Paris Saint Germain's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Stade Brestois 29's defence: tighter than only ~8% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Stade Brestois 29 — Paris Saint Germain
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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