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2. Bundesliga
SpVgg Greuther Fürth—1. FC Magdeburg
· Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
What the model reads
70%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 70% means the opposite outcome happens about 30% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GRE
- 35%
- Draw
- 23%
- MAG
- 42%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 38% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- 1. FC Magdeburg's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
What could mislead us
- 1. FC Magdeburg's attack: better than ~71% of the teams in the league
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence: tighter than only ~3% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 1. FC Magdeburg
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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