Lire cette analyse en français
UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Sporting CP—Galatasaray
· Estádio José Alvalade
Final score
3–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SPO
- 59%
- Draw
- 23%
- GAL
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Sporting CP's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Sporting CP takes 2.52 points per game at home, the opponent 1.86 away
- Galatasaray has 22 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Galatasaray's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Sporting CP has 6 declared absences
The full analysis of Sporting CP — Galatasaray
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.