Lire cette analyse en français
Primeira Liga
Sporting CP—Arouca
· —
What the model reads
78%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SPO
- 78%
- Draw
- 14%
- ARO
- 8%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Sporting CP's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Arouca's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Sporting CP takes 2.52 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
What could mislead us
- On this league, our verified analyses held 59% for 71% announced (over 22): read the probability with caution.
- Arouca takes 1.63 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Sporting CP — Arouca
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.