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Primeira Liga
Sporting CP—Alverca
· Estádio José Alvalade
Final score
3–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
96%Home or draw
A probability, not a prediction: 96% means the opposite outcome happens about 4% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SPO
- 87%
- Draw
- 9%
- ALV
- 4%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Sporting CP's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Sporting CP takes 2.5 points per game at home, the opponent 0.72 away
- Sporting CP has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Alverca takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.72 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Sporting CP — Alverca
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.