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Premier League
Spartak Moscow—FC Orenburg
· Lukoil Arena
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
69%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 69% means the opposite outcome happens about 31% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SPA
- 69%
- Draw
- 19%
- GAZ
- 12%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 17 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Spartak Moscow takes 2.13 points per game at home, the opponent 0.33 away
- FC Orenburg has 4 declared absences
- Spartak Moscow scores 2.3 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Spartak Moscow has 6 declared absences
- FC Orenburg takes 0.93 points per game at home against 0.33 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Spartak Moscow — FC Orenburg
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.