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Allsvenskan
Sirius—Malmo FF
· Studenternas IP
Final score
0–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
55%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 55% means the opposite outcome happens about 45% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SIR
- 22%
- Draw
- 23%
- MAL
- 55%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 11 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Sirius's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Malmo FF has 12 declared absences
- Sirius scores 2.1 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Malmo FF's attack: better than ~76% of the teams in the league
- Sirius has 6 declared absences
The full analysis of Sirius — Malmo FF
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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