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Championship
Sheffield Utd—Bolton
· Bramall Lane
Final score
3–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
77%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SHE
- 75%
- Draw
- 17%
- BOL
- 8%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 13 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 56% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Sheffield Utd has won 3 of the last 4 meetings
What could mislead us
- Sheffield Utd has 4 declared absences
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Sheffield Utd — Bolton
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.