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Serie A
Santos—Mirassol
· Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
40%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 40% means the opposite outcome happens about 60% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 34%
- Draw
- 26%
- MIR
- 40%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Santos takes 1.55 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
- Mirassol has 16 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Mirassol's attack: better than ~85% of the teams in the league
- Santos's defence: tighter than only ~27% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Santos — Mirassol
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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