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Liga MX
Santos Laguna—Tigres UANL
· Estadio Corona
Final score
0–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
43%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 43% means the opposite outcome happens about 57% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 30%
- Draw
- 27%
- UAN
- 43%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Santos Laguna takes 1.26 points per game at home against 0.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Tigres UANL has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Tigres UANL's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- Santos Laguna's defence: tighter than only ~3% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Santos Laguna — Tigres UANL
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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