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Liga MX
Santos Laguna—FC Juarez
· Estadio Corona
What the model reads
56%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 56% means the opposite outcome happens about 44% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 56%
- Draw
- 23%
- FC
- 21%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 46% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- FC Juarez's defence: tighter than only ~14% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Santos Laguna takes 1.17 points per game at home against 0.27 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- FC Juarez has lost 6 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Santos Laguna's defence: tighter than only ~6% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Santos Laguna — FC Juarez
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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