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Primeira Liga
Santa Clara—Famalicao
· Estadio de São Miguel
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
49%Under 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 49% means the opposite outcome happens about 51% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 30%
- Draw
- 33%
- FAM
- 37%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Santa Clara — Famalicao
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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