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Eliteserien
Sandefjord—Start
· Jotun Arena
What the model reads
78%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 58%
- Draw
- 23%
- STA
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 48% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Start's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Sandefjord takes 1.78 points per game at home, the opponent 0.5 away
- Sandefjord takes 1.78 points per game at home against 0.96 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
- Sandefjord has lost 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Sandefjord — Start
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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