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Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes—Portland Timbers
· PayPal Park
What the model reads
62%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 62% means the opposite outcome happens about 38% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- JOS
- 38%
- Draw
- 24%
- POR
- 38%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 42% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- San Jose Earthquakes's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- San Jose Earthquakes scores 2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- San Jose Earthquakes's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Portland Timbers takes 1.74 points per game at home against 0.86 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of San Jose Earthquakes — Portland Timbers
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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