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Major League Soccer
San Diego—San Jose Earthquakes
· Snapdragon Stadium
Final score
2–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
70%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 70% means the opposite outcome happens about 30% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 70%
- Draw
- 18%
- JOS
- 12%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- San Diego's attack: better than ~87% of the teams in the league
- San Jose Earthquakes's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- San Jose Earthquakes has 12 declared absences
What could mislead us
- San Jose Earthquakes's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- San Diego has 4 declared absences
The full analysis of San Diego — San Jose Earthquakes
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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