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Serie B
Sampdoria—Catanzaro
· Stadio Luigi Ferraris
What the model reads
37%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 37% means the opposite outcome happens about 63% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAM
- 36%
- Draw
- 29%
- CAT
- 35%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Sampdoria takes 1.68 points per game at home, the opponent 1.07 away
- Sampdoria takes 1.68 points per game at home against 0.62 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Catanzaro has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Catanzaro's attack: better than ~83% of the teams in the league
- 4 draws in the last 6 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Sampdoria — Catanzaro
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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