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HNL
Rudes—HNK Hajduk Split
· Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
Final score
0–4
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
71%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 71% means the opposite outcome happens about 29% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- RUD
- 11%
- Draw
- 18%
- HAJ
- 71%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- HNK Hajduk Split has won 8 of the last 8 meetings
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Rudes — HNK Hajduk Split
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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