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Premier League
Rubin—Dinamo Makhachkala
· Ak Bars Arena
Final score
3–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
71%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 71% means the opposite outcome happens about 29% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- RUB
- 42%
- Draw
- 33%
- DIN
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 20 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 67% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Rubin takes 1.93 points per game at home, the opponent 0.8 away
- Dinamo Makhachkala has 4 declared absences
- Rubin takes 1.93 points per game at home against 1.07 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Rubin has 12 declared absences
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Rubin — Dinamo Makhachkala
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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