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Ligue 2
Rodez—Nancy
· Stade Paul-Lignon
What the model reads
75%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ROD
- 48%
- Draw
- 27%
- NAN
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Rodez's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- Nancy's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Rodez has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- 6 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Nancy has won 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Rodez — Nancy
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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