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Liga Profesional Argentina
River Plate—Independ. Rivadavia
· Estadio Mâs Monumental
Final score
3–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
57%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- RIV
- 57%
- Draw
- 26%
- RIV
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- River Plate takes 2.07 points per game at home, the opponent 1.07 away
- River Plate takes 2.07 points per game at home against 1.08 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- River Plate scores 2.1 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 25%: the outright win is not secured.
- Independ. Rivadavia takes 1.77 points per game at home against 1.07 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of River Plate — Independ. Rivadavia
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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