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Primeira Liga
Rio Ave—Sporting CP
· Estádio do Rio Ave FC
Final score
0–4
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
63%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 63% means the opposite outcome happens about 37% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- RIO
- 16%
- Draw
- 21%
- SPO
- 63%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Sporting CP's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Rio Ave's defence: tighter than only ~22% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Rio Ave — Sporting CP
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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