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Ligue 1
Rennes—Marseille
· Roazhon Park
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
57%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- REN
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- MAR
- 33%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Rennes's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- Rennes takes 2.04 points per game at home, the opponent 1.21 away
- Marseille has 4 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Marseille's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Rennes's defence: tighter than only ~33% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Rennes — Marseille
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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