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Bundesliga
Red Bull Salzburg—Sturm Graz
· Red Bull Arena
What the model reads
64%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 64% means the opposite outcome happens about 36% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAL
- 63%
- Draw
- 22%
- STU
- 15%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Red Bull Salzburg's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Red Bull Salzburg has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Sturm Graz's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- The draw still weighs 22%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Red Bull Salzburg — Sturm Graz
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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