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La Liga
Real Madrid—Rayo Vallecano
· —
Final score
4–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
79%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- REA
- 79%
- Draw
- 14%
- RAY
- 7%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Real Madrid's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Real Madrid takes 2.43 points per game at home, the opponent 1.27 away
- Rayo Vallecano has 16 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Real Madrid has 6 declared absences
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.