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Serie A
RB Bragantino—Bahia
· Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
Final score
2–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
52%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 52% means the opposite outcome happens about 48% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BRA
- 50%
- Draw
- 24%
- BAH
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 11 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- RB Bragantino takes 1.63 points per game at home, the opponent 0.89 away
- Bahia has 6 declared absences
- RB Bragantino takes 1.63 points per game at home against 0.68 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- RB Bragantino has 10 declared absences
- Bahia takes 1.89 points per game at home against 0.89 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of RB Bragantino — Bahia
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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