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La Liga
Rayo Vallecano—Espanyol
· Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- RAY
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- ESP
- 28%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Rayo Vallecano takes 1.73 points per game at home, the opponent 1.07 away
- Espanyol has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Rayo Vallecano has 10 declared absences
The full analysis of Rayo Vallecano — Espanyol
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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