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La Liga
Racing Santander—Alaves
· Estadio El Sardinero
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
52%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 52% means the opposite outcome happens about 48% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SAN
- 51%
- Draw
- 25%
- ALA
- 24%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Racing Santander's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Racing Santander takes 2.16 points per game at home, the opponent 1.15 away
- Racing Santander takes 2.16 points per game at home against 1.4 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Racing Santander's defence: tighter than only ~33% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Racing Santander has 4 declared absences
The full analysis of Racing Santander — Alaves
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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