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PSV Eindhoven—Sparta Rotterdam
· Philips Stadion
What the model reads
80%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 80% means the opposite outcome happens about 20% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PSV
- 80%
- Draw
- 13%
- SPA
- 7%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- PSV Eindhoven's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- PSV Eindhoven takes 2.17 points per game at home, the opponent 1.42 away
- PSV Eindhoven has won 5 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- PSV Eindhoven has 12 declared absences
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of PSV Eindhoven — Sparta Rotterdam
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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